Is Mike Williams a better fantasy choice than Keenan Allen?

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The Chargers had one of the strongest offenses in the entire NFL. Last year in fantasy football, they backed a Top-2 QB (Justin Herbert), a Top-3 RB (Austin Ekeler), and two Top-15 WRs (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams).

There’s no sign of that offense slowing down in 2022, and both Williams and Allen are drafted into the Top 20 at their position, but the question is: Does Williams have better value at his expense compared to Allen? ?

Allen is drafted as WR10 ADP (likely his cap), while Williams is WR19. One of the keys to a good draft is finding value. Even if Allen finishes higher in 2022, your team could have more of an advantage if you draft a different player at that ADP and then target Williams a round later. PPR ADP is collected from Advantages of fantasy

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2021 performance for Mike Williams and Keenan Allen

mike williams had a breakout year last year, finishing with a career-high 76 receptions, a career-high 1,146 yards and nine touchdowns. It was reported this offseason that Williams would be used more as a consistent option instead of a deep ball threat, which showed he had career highs in target rate (23.8%) and share. target (20.8%).

Williams isn’t as good a road runner as Allen, but makes up for it with his contested ability to catch and jump the ball. Last year, Williams had the 11th highest contested catch rate at 53.3% (according to FantasyData). The Chargers are very committed to Williams, giving him a 3-year, $60,000,000 contract extension this offseason, with $40,000,000 guaranteed.

Keenan Allen showed no signs of slowing down last year in usage, finishing with 106 receptions, 1,138 yards and six touchdowns. He had 157 targets, the most he had in a season since 2017 (159). Allen also won 270 of his runs last year, the most in the league. Allen’s 2.00 yards per course (2020) fell to 1.93 in 2021, but he saw his 6.7 yards per target (2020) increase to 7.2 last year (according to PlayerProfiler).

During his freshman year with Justin Herbert, Allen was his favorite target, racking up 10.5 targets per game. However, with the emergence of Williams as a more cohesive part of the game plan, Allen has seen his goals per game drop to 9.8 in 2021. Allen’s stats haven’t dropped much by any means, but they do. are down as it enters its 30th season this year.

There are better options for the same cost as Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen finished as a WR12 (PPR/G) last year, but is currently being drafted as a WR10 (28.4 overall). It should do even better than last year to be worth this current price. He is drafted to his ceiling, while Mike Williams is drafted to his floor.

Williams had the best season of his career last year, but he was drafted deep in the Top-20 WR. There are some notable top players around Allen’s ADP who have better value, which you could take instead and then target Williams in the next round:

Kyle Pitts (TE3 / 32.2 overall)
Pitts could have a HUGE 2022 with the overall TE1 in its lineup. He is coming off a historic rookie season where he finished with 68 receptions and 1,026 receiving yards. Pitts was the first rookie TE to have 1,000 receiving yards in a season since 1961, and his 15.1 receiving yards were the most among ANY tight end last year.

He also had the fourth-highest yards per haul (2.20) and third-highest yards per target (9.3) among tight ends. Getting an elite TE will give you a positional advantage over your competition, and this may be the last year Pitts can be drafted this late.

Tee Higgins (WR12 / 32.6 overall)
Tee Higgins is another player who could have a huge 2022. He missed two games last year due to injury which dropped him to a WR24 finish, but he was the WR13 in PPR/G . Higgins is often overlooked because he’s not the team’s WR1, but this Bengals offense is capable of producing two WR1s in 2022.

Higgins is averaging more predicted aerial yards per game than Chase last year (101 to Chase’s 95 according to RotoViz) and is just as involved in the passing game as Chase.

The Bengals improved the O line significantly this offseason, giving Burrow a lot more time to get the ball out of his hands. This Bengals offense will be even better in 2022, and with more teams trying to double team Chase, Higgins could pick up a lot more targets and is excellent value at his current ADP. Don’t be afraid to draft him because he’s not the “number 1” on his team.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR13/35.2 overall)
Pittman has had a very productive 2021 on the Colts’ heavy offense. He finished with 88 receptions, 1,082 receiving yards and six touchdowns last year in his second season. He had the third-highest number of road wins (262), the fourth-highest road win rate (51.3%), and the eighth-highest win rate from the coverage of the men (44.7% according to PlayerProfiler).

The Colts acquired Matt Ryan this year, which is a huge improvement for Pittman and signals the team could take a more pass-heavy approach this year.

DJ Moore (WR17 / 43.4 overall)
DJ Moore is the epitome of “GET THIS MAN A QB”. Moore has been wasted by lousy quarterback play since entering the league. He is the only wide receiver in the NFL to have 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three seasons.

He had the fourth-most receiving yards in the last three years (3,525) and was successful with Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, PJ Walker and Will Grier throwing the ball to him . Baker Mayfield has had a tough tenure with the Browns, but he’s probably the best passer Moore has had so far. Moore commanded a target share of 28.4% last year and could be in a career year in 2022.

Conclusion

Keenan Allen should still be set for a big 2022, but Mike Williams is better value. Passing over Allen at the current ADP for someone like Pitts, Higgins, Pittman or Moore is a better move because they are drafted roughly where they would end up, compared to Allen being drafted at his cap. Mike Williams is currently going about 1.5 rounds past Allen.

In any format, the best strategy would be to land Pitts in the third round (ideally) and get to Williams in the fourth (even if he is slightly above his ADP). Williams is in a HUGE year and has the potential to finish higher than Allen (just 0.7 PPR/G less than Allen in 2021) at a much lower cost.

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